Just wanted to know what is your views on the market and its future trend possibility.

Do you guys think that this is just a major price correction and the market will start to move up sooner or later in a few weeks ? Or you fear that the bullish momentum has ended and a bearish market is upcoming for a longer period?

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My view: The market since 2020(since the corona virus time) has been highly up-trending and especially in 2021, and its arguable that a stock market bubble has been created: share prices out of proportion to their companies’ fundamental value and incase of bubbles like this, even small things can burst the bubble (think about it like this : people are overvaluing the stocks way much more, so in events of even small bad news people start to fear the price will go down less and will start to panic sell at around the available price in the market to minimize losses/book profit and other people will further follow this leading to rapid decreases in price).

Few examples of bubble markets:

1).The great crash 1929

similar to what NEPSE is going through

– prices of stocks astronomically high compared to their intrinsic value.

– more speculation than investing.

-regulatory authority warnings.

-rising stock prices despite low economic growth.

All bad signs of an unhealthy bullish market(bubble market).That crash happened because of the administrative warning. See it [here](https://i.imgur.com/8Kab7hu.jpg)

2).. Elon musks tweet crashing bitcoin. The tweet musk made about Tesle not accepting bitcoin crashed the bitcoin bubble market as we all know it( a single mans tweet crashes the whole market). You can see it [Here](https://i.imgur.com/hGqMjze.jpg)(for the main tweet) or here for other tweets and its impacts [here](https://i.imgur.com/lQUHZNt.jpg) .

So to sum up,i believe that market will further go down(I might be wrong and certainly hope I am).Obviously, the market in a long long run will never go down with increasing economy but i fear that a bearish market might be around for a few weeks to months before we see bullish market again.

I am interested to know what is all of yours views on it. Thanks

More at: r/NepalStock by Chuppi_49

10 comments
  1. Yo clubhouse ko cult haru lai banda garnu paryo. Market nabujheka le market chalairaka chhan. What the f*ck? Sabai le high ma kineka chhan, so ghatnai hudaina bhanne chha.

  2. Right now Nepse is down 15% from the peak it made a month ago. Another 5% and the market will officially slip into bear territory which is the likely the case for now. If there is a reversal from this point, people will be saved. Need to stay vigilant.

  3. I just got an idea in my head that bull might not enter into bank sector after all like before. Old kheladis ko paisale matrai Nepse chaldaina aba.

    Bank sector would’ve gone wild during Covid had there not been TMS and addition of many millions of new investors. We have a different ground reality now.

    In conclusion, stick with banks (no bull so far and if bull comes, happy birthday) and some other less volatile stocks. Get rid of cornered stocks loss khayera vaye pani. Now is not time to hold them.

    1. We don’t know when Nepse will go up
    2. Even when Nepse goes up, big kheladis might choose some other sector. Microfinance ko situation will become clearer in coming months. Banks ko bonus seasion is nearby. Insurance sector ma big kheladis and traders ko prabesh ko chance etc.

    The biggest shock, however, to the cornered stocks i.e. hydro stocks and finance stocks will come when companies start publishing their 1st quarterly report for FI 78/79.

    This will all happen within 3-4 months from now.

    Just a random thought!

  4. The market was driven by excess liquidity due to the multiple lockdowns…and now is getting pushed back by the ” liquidity crunch”…. i would not be surprised if the market goes on a short term bear run…after that we may see a slow and healthy growth…unless a big financial/ natural crisis occurs the market will eventually be bullish..

  5. The paradigm has changed. Paila ko jasto 3 barsa ghatne tw chance nei xaina. Broker haru gau gau pugxan. International instruments such as intra day short selling options futures aunxa. Market leverage ma udxa. Growth stocks aunxa. Yesari nei bonus share dine ho vane bank and some life insurance scripts will not be favoured. Tech companies manufacturing companies hydro non life and many other sector will lead the market. If only the country gets a proper leader in respective field within 10 years the index will reach 10000 or even 15 to 20 thousand.

  6. Current governor is more like chela of Khatiwoda. Khatiwoda though benefited from different government he is still aligned to Oli. Monetary policy came after govt change. And it is not friendly with stock maret/traders. It pretty much crippled dividend capacity of BFI and micros also, doesn’t really address liquidity, upgrade capacity of BFI, specially dev banks and finance

    I don’t even know what finance minister is thinking or even planning. It will take atleast 2-3 months for market to gain momentum, may after tihar? big players take loan in coror. 12cr that too with multiple banks is shit show for them. imagine them trying to sell off. may be limited but it will create panic.

    Banks increase interest in saving/FD by almost 2%. this will definitely increase base rate. 1% of 10cr is still huge money.

  7. Time for Government Change. That finance minister should not have said so. and should be sacked . malai yeso nabhannu bhanya cha bhanda pani he crossed his limit.

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