Do you think market will make the new low ?


  1. KBL is trading at an undervalued zone, PE multiples of 10.1, 317 is a fair value and trading at around 40% Margin of safety from fair value, you could further add if you are sitting on cash if you want. It has a decent dividend yield of 4.45% and positive growth in both QoQ and YoY. Beta around 0.65, volatility is also ok not crazy, unlike few other stocks.

    GUFL on the other hand, is highly overvalued, not so strong fundamental, PE around 50, and negative growth in both QoQ and YoY. Beta is high (2.06), you should expect crazy movement. No dividend, NPL is high, EPS, book value, and ROE all dropped.

    At the moment world economy mainly the developed economy seems to head through a rough phase. Its effect will be observed in an underdeveloped economy like ours. Inflation is a big issue at the moment. The government is implementing an import ban which has also reduced our exports by more than 20%. Remittance is increasing, NEA selling electricity to some extent, but BOP is still highly negative and reserves may cover for 7-9 months or so. Banks are increasing interest rates. Festivals are approaching, and people need money to buy goods and stuff, a business owner needs money as this might be their peak business month or season, so might be some outflow of money from the market. We are in an uncertain situation nevertheless the stock market is also uncertain, and nobody can time the market. It will perform at its own pace. We can just analyze and try to increase our probability of winning. It will be wise if you cut your bad apple and shift that to buy existing or new green apples which are fundamentally strong, which may ripe in a few months or years on the rally and you could enjoy it.

    Note: Do your own research before taking any decision.


  2. I think It could. Entire world is preparing for the worse. Inflation is the main source of all problems. Unless Nepal’s foreign currency reserve increase drastically, we are not safe. Nepal is paying more for comditity due to inflation & we have near to zero domestic production.

    Fortunately, Remittance is increasing that a good sign. Lets hope it continues even after festive season. I’m hoping for best but planning for worse.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here