Weekly Nepal Stock Market Analysis: NEPSE Index Dips, Key Levels to Watch
This week’s Nepal stock market saw a slight downturn, trading for only four days due to a public holiday on Thursday. Let’s dive into a detailed market analysis of the week’s performance.
The NEPSE Index closed at 2,631.17, a decrease of 44.86 points, or 1.68%. This is a dip from last week’s close of 2,676.03, which had shown a 4.52% increase. The week’s trading saw a high of 2,694.89 and a low of 2,623.10, resulting in a market volatility of 71.79 points. This indicates a slightly less volatile week compared to the previous week’s 115.95 points.
The largest intraday loss occurred on Sunday, shedding 26.51 points with a market turnover of Rs 7.08 Arba. Overall, the total turnover for the week amounted to Rs 21.51 Arba, signaling continued investor activity.
Momentum Indicators: Gauging Market Sentiment
Let’s analyze the technical indicators to understand the current market trends. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe reads 54, suggesting a slightly bullish sentiment. The weekly RSI is at 49.04, indicating a neutral position.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is currently above zero, with the Signal line in the positive zone at 14.18. This further indicates a potentially bullish trend.
The Nepse Index is currently above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and below the 5-day EMA. Historically, being above the moving average has indicated earlier bullish market sentiment.
Key levels to watch include the 2,540 level, which may act as the nearest support level. On the upside, the 2,820 zone is likely to serve as a major resistance level.
This week saw over 4.82 Crore unit shares traded across 2,68,270 transactions. The current market capitalization of NEPSE stands at Rs. 4,417,804.57 million, or Rs 44.17 Kharba.
Sector Performance: Who’s Up and Who’s Down?
The NEPSE index recorded a decrease of 1.68% this week, with only three sector indices closing in the green. A deeper dive into individual sector performance will reveal specific investment opportunities and trends.
High Beta Stocks: Risk and Reward
For investors seeking higher potential returns (and higher risk), the top three companies with the highest beta are Unnati Sahakarya Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (USLB), Panchakanya Mai Hydropower Limited (PMHPL), and Jhapa Energy Limited (JHAPA), with beta values of 3.272, 2.427, and 2.341, respectively. Remember that a high beta stock signifies higher volatility compared to the overall market.
Top Gainers and Losers: Identifying Stock Market Movers
Sagar Distillery Limited (SAGAR) emerged as the top gainer, closing at Rs. 1,951.80 with an impressive increment of Rs. 618.60 (46.40%). On the other hand, Mountain Energy Nepal Limited (MEN) experienced a significant price decrease of 17.25%, with its last traded price (LTP) at Rs. 554.50.
Top Stocks by Turnover, Volume, and Number of Transactions
Himalayan Reinsurance Limited (HRL) was the most actively traded company this week, with shares worth Rs. 66.94 Crores changing hands.
Broker Analysis: Who’s Buying and Selling?
This week, Naasa Securities Co. Ltd. (Broker No. 58) stood out as the top buying broker, acquiring stocks worth Rs. 1.46 Arba. Interestingly, the same brokerage firm was also the top seller, selling stocks worth Rs. 1.48 Arba. This suggests significant trading activity within that brokerage. Monitoring broker activity can provide valuable insights into market dynamics.
