NEPSE Weekly Market Analysis: A Deep Dive into the Latest Stock Market Trends
This week’s NEPSE Index analysis reveals significant market movements. The NEPSE closed at 2,487.17, a decrease of 95.01 points, representing a 3.68% loss. Last week, the index stood at 2,582.18, already down 3.05% from the week prior. This indicates a continuing downward trend in the Nepalese stock market.
We observed a market volatility of 105.85 points this week, with the index peaking at 2,584.24 and bottoming out at 2,478.39. The previous week saw even higher volatility at 141.79 points. The largest intraday gain occurred on Monday with 44.25 points, accompanied by a turnover of Rs 4.97 Arba. However, the total weekly turnover was Rs 21.42 Arba, showing robust, albeit bearish, market activity.
Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
Analyzing momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is 33.43, indicating an oversold market condition. The weekly RSI is slightly higher at 38.83. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and signal lines are both in negative territory, with the MACD reading at -66.76, confirming a bearish trend.
The NEPSE Index is currently below both the 20-day and 5-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). This positioning below the shorter moving average suggests increased bearish sentiment among stock traders. The area between 2,440 and 2,480 may serve as immediate market support, while the 2,690 zone is likely to act as significant market resistance.
The week saw over 4.70 Crore unit shares traded across 2,27,146 transactions. The current market capitalization of NEPSE is Rs. 4,157,898.50 million, i.e., Rs 41.57 Kharba, highlighting the size of the Nepalese equity market.
Sector-Wise Performance and Top Movers
This week, the NEPSE index declined by 3.68%. All sector indices experienced losses, signaling a broad-based downturn across the stock market.
Among individual stocks, the top three companies with the highest Beta (a measure of volatility) are Saptakoshi Development Bank Limited (SAPDBL), Sindhu Bikas Bank Limited (SINDU), and Butwal Power Company Limited (BPCL), with Betas of 1.919, 1.912, and 1.859, respectively.
The top gainer of the week was Nepal Micro Insurance Company Limited (NMIC), closing at Rs. 1,375.90, an increase of Rs. 260.90 (23.40%). Conversely, the biggest loser was Samaj Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (SAMAJ), with its price decreasing by 31.54% and its last traded price (LTP) standing at Rs. 1,875.80.
Trading Activity and Broker Analysis
Nepal Reinsurance Company Limited (NRIC) was the most actively traded company this week, with shares worth Rs. 1.30 Arba changing hands.
Naasa Securities Company Limited (Broker No.- 58) emerged as the top buyer and seller broker, buying and selling stocks worth Rs. 1.41 Arba each, indicating their significant role in the week’s market activity. Analyzing the top companies bought and sold by this broker can provide insights into potential investment strategies.
