So, looked at the chart and found something interesting.
Looking at the trend line I don’t think NEPSE will be able to hold the support of 2000 and move downward to 1800 which is very strong support. If you look at the chart, you can clearly see the volume and the price both are rapidly increasing during the end of the quarter.
Making lowest after the bull run was 1806.95 at 24th July 2022. Starts plodding climbing upward with increase in volume, peaking at around 1st August 2022 (2079-04-16). Again starts decreasing along with volume to its support of 1800. Then again near of another quarter we see a spike in NPESE along with volume with peaking at 10th January 2023 (2079-09-26). Again the cycle repeats by NEPSE moving downward to its support of 1800. We see another spike at 25th July 2023 ( 2080-04-09). Now you will see a pattern repeating and NEPSE move upward with heavy increase in volume at the end of last quarter and making peak at 17th January 2024 (2080-10-03). We are again seeing downtrend with decrease in volume.
As such NEPSE will break the support of 2000 and might reach it strong support of 1800 in two months. If the cycle continues, we might see 2200 in the end of Ashar 2081. Although, the interest rate by banks are decreasing, it’s not as low to boost investor to invest in market. I think the interest rate will decrease to 5-6% in the next 3-4 months. This will only break the cycle of 2200-1800-2200 and might see bull run after Ashar 2081.